I’m sure someone has said more elegantly, we are running in to a period of centralisation with our purchasing. It’s looking like Amazon (despite $WMT recent surge). From my understanding, they have often relied on 3rd Parties to fulfill orders. I imagine their same-day delivery is dependent on stock and availability. Surely known (or soon to be) companies will begin selling through Amazon, competing on price but guaranteeing sales. I can see Amazon (as we know it, the online marketplace) to act as a clearing house or well trusted PayPal equivalent. Providing customer reviewed providers and/or instant delivery will push us to our on demand products. These I can see being fulfilled by local providers able to act quickly.
Venture Capital? Private equity? Hedge funds? Index funds? ETFs? Tax adviors? Financial planners?
I think returns will get skewed. The top VCs who find and more likely create value will earn outsized returns. Similarly behavioural systems will drive the majority of returns for retirement planners. It may take time but people will shift from Mutual Funds to Index (tracker) funds. The S&P500 continues to be he benchmark.
As more people join these funds where is the value? No longer in below average managers charging above average fees. Mean reversion becomes more the mean with few outliers.
I’ve havent posted because I don’t know how to come across. I think I should sound more formal but then it quickly seems disingenuous.
I battle with the desire to post long form and the thoughts that are short but I think other people may experience.
What separates a short “deep”piece from a mindless (short) rant?
How are we going to explain to our kids that we had driverless technology but chose not to implement it? Because we dot have laws yet?
Instinctively I think innovation is restrained solely because of the same logic.
I’m going to explore blogging as a form of communication and attempt to understand the platform.